George Osborne, former Conservative Chancellor (and a passionate Remainer), said: “Hard Brexit went in the rubbish bin tonight.” But is he right?
Following yesterday’s General Election, British politics and Brexit are in disarray.
The Conservatives will still be by far the largest party, their projected 318 seats beating Labour’s likely 262 by at least 50 seats.
George Osborne, former Conservative Chancellor and now Editor of the Evening Standard newspaper in the highly anti-Brexit London, says that May’s negotiating strategy for a Hard Brexit is dead, but is it? The Conservatives will still be by far the largest party, their projected 318 seats beating Labour’s likely 262 by at least 50 seats. A Conservative administration is likely to be propped up by Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), who are also broadly in favour of Brexit.
Moreover, the parties that appeared on an anti-Brexit platform, the Lib Dems, Greens and Scottish National Party, have not made any inroads either. So while on one hand May appears to have lost her mandate for a hard negotiating stance when it comes to Brexit, on the other, what other mandate is there?
What is does mean, however, is that Brexit is back on the table. With the youth vote proving decisive in Labour support, and Britain’s youth being overwhelmingly in favour of the EU (75% of 18 to 24-year-olds voted to Remain), the anti-Brexit movement will be re-energised, it will no longer be seen as a done deal. In the meantime, over the next few weeks Brexit negotiations will begin, led by civil servants and conservative ministers.
Where does the election leave May’s Brewer strategy? (Frederic Legrand – COMEO / Shutterstock.com)
The Business of Government
When it comes to getting that deal, and any other measures, through parliament, without an overall majority a Conservative government will have to rely on the support of either the DUP or other smaller parties, such as Scottish and Welsh nationalists, or the Liberal Democrats. The irony is that Theresa May will probably be leading a “coalition of chaos”. None of these parties are likely to agree a formal partnership, and most will try to frustrate any attempt at hard Brexit. What will they do over other government measures – no-one knows yet. It could mean another General Election within months.
The evidence is that if you buy in the EU before March 2019 your EU rights will be maintained anyway
Otherwise it will be the DUP that helps the Conservatives with support over Brexit, but this party also appears to be much less in favour of a hard Brexit than the Conservative Party, especially over the tricky issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. It is likely, as one pundit said on TV, that in Downing Street senior Conservatives and civil servants are rapidly riffling through the DUP manifesto this morning to see where deals can be done.
Potential Brexit scenarios
What does this mean for your house purchase or life in Europe? It may not mean anything very much in the short-term. The evidence is that if you buy in the EU before March 2019 your EU rights will be maintained anyway. After the end of the two year Article 50 period, these are three potential scenarios:
No deal: The fall in the value of the pound appears to suggest that this is more likely according to economic analysts. May will be leading either a minority government or a coalition (of chaos?). This could mean falling out of the EU in under two year’s time with no deal at all.
Norwegian model: If Brexit is no longer Brexit, exactly, might the UK adopt a version of EU membership like Norway? Although this means that the UK continues paying, it would make negotiating the hundreds of deals required much easier.
Retained membership of the single market? It is here that EU negotiators could be wiling to negotiate to adopt a much softer negotiating line, if a chastened Conservative Party agrees. The total collapse of UKIP does remove one obstacle to such deal making.
Watch this space for further news.